As Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s health deteriorates, the struggle for power among potential successors is intensifying, raising concerns that it could escalate into a civil war in Uzbekistan.

Sensing the imminent collapse of Mirziyoyev’s regime, high-ranking officials from his inner circle—who do not see their future or the future of their children in Uzbekistan—are already preparing to flee to safe havens they secured in advance.

According to a report by the editorial team at Intelligence Online, in 2023, Rustam Inoyatov, the former head of Uzbekistan’s security service, acquired citizenship of the island nation of Vanuatu for himself and his family.

Suffering from obesity and “type 2 diabetes”, Inoyatov had hoped to escape prosecution for crimes committed in Uzbekistan while also ensuring unrestricted access to top-tier medical facilities in the European Union.

However, due to numerous irregularities in the issuance of Vanuatu passports, the EU revoked its visa-free agreement with the country’s passport holders at the end of 2023.

From 1995 to 2018, Rustam Inoyatov served as the Chairman of the National Security Service of Uzbekistan and is regarded as one of the architects of the country’s dictatorial regime.